I noted in March that Laura Ries predicted the iPhone will flop. Her reason is that she believes it is a convergence device. In a comment, my friend Brandon boldly disagreed with Ries and predicted that the iPhone will be a huge success. Now Seth Godin has joined the fray with his prediction: My take is quite different. I think the iPhone is going to sell 2 million units in 2007 and more in 2008. There, I said it. Meanwhile, Laura Ries stands by her prediction that the iPhone will not be successful. I respect the willingness of Laura, Brandon, and Seth to go on the record with their predictions. I don't yet have a prediction. I see the success of the iPhone hinging upon what Jack Trout and the elder Ries (Al Ries) call "the battle for the mind". Is the iPhone really a convergence of product categories, or is it merely a convergence of technologies ? Whether it is a convergence of product categories depends on how Apple will market it, and how consumers will eventually
"Smart product decisions"